Imagine a nation trapped in a cycle of violence, where ethnic divisions are weaponized for political gain. That's the harsh reality facing Ethiopia, and unless we address the root causes, the bloodshed will continue. This article delves into the heart of the matter, exploring the dangerous rise of ethnic hegemony and the urgent need for a new path forward.
In Part III, we examined Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's vision for Ethiopia, a vision deeply rooted in 'Oromumma' – an ideology centered on the political, cultural, and economic aspirations of the Oromo elite. While various Oromo ethno-nationalist groups might differ on tactics, their ultimate goals – consolidating power and redistributing wealth – remain remarkably consistent. And let's be clear: this isn't just an Oromo phenomenon. Tigrayan ethnic nationalists exhibit similar patterns. The real disagreements are about how to achieve their aims, not what those aims are.
The driving force behind the Oromo elite's resurgence is this very ideology of Oromumma. Understanding its historical context is crucial. Back in 1935, Roman Prochazka, in his book 'Abyssinia: The Powder Barrel,' laid a conceptual foundation for today's ethnic-based politics. He argued that the diverse peoples within Ethiopia, distinct in race, language, culture, and religion from the 'ruling minority of the Abyssinians proper,' would have overthrown Abyssinian rule long ago if granted the right to self-determination.
It's important to note that Prochazka used "Abyssinian" to specifically denote the Amhara people, primarily because of their historical resistance to European colonialism and their central role in defending Ethiopia's independence.
Prochazka went on to claim that Ethiopia was a land of religious, linguistic, and ethnic diversity, where minorities had exploited and oppressed numerous ethnic groups, necessitating the right to self-determination for the oppressed.
And this is the part most people miss... The modern Ethiopian constitutional principle of 'self-determination, including the right to secession,' draws directly from this colonial-era narrative. The implication is stark: without fundamental change, Ethiopia risks perpetual ethnic conflict and devastating war, with widespread destruction of social, economic, and physical infrastructure.
So, what fuels this demand for self-determination? Whether genuine or artificially manufactured, it stems from very real grievances: discrimination, exclusion from political decision-making, unequal distribution of resources, marginalization, nepotism, denial of fundamental rights, and disrespect rooted in ethnicity or religious beliefs. These are undeniable realities, and ignoring them solves nothing. A healthy society confronts these issues head-on, engaging in open dialogue and seeking solutions. This is where intellectuals and civil society organizations can play a crucial, constructive role.
But here's where it gets controversial... Ethiopia's political and social leaders must break free from the endless cycle of rehashing the past. While history is important, it cannot solve the urgent crisis that grips Ethiopian society today. Ethnic politics actively undermines the search for common ground and endangers the future of generations to come.
For decades, ethno-nationalist groups have indoctrinated children, teaching them that a specific 'enemy' – often the Amhara – is responsible for their oppression. Repeat a lie often enough, and it becomes 'truth'. Grievances solidify into doctrine, and those doctrines are then used to justify mobilization, war, and even alliances with external forces. Ethiopia simply cannot survive if it remains locked in this perpetual state of violence.
National liberation front ideologies thrive on creating enemies. Oromumma, for example, identifies 'Amhara oppression and internal colonization' as its core grievance. Similarly, the TPLF's 1976 Manifesto explicitly stated that the Tigrean national struggle was primarily directed against 'Amhara national subjugation.'
And this is the part most people miss... This core ideology hasn't changed. Despite the Pretoria Agreement, the TPLF's long-term strategic goal of annexing Wolkait, Tegede, Telemt, and Raya remains intact. Their stated aim – establishing 'an independent democratic republic of Tigray' – persists. If this mindset remains unchallenged, it will inevitably lead to another catastrophic war.
It's chilling how Prochazka's colonial narrative and the TPLF's ideology mirror each other.
Consider also the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Both the TPLF and the OLF are national liberation fronts that identify a specific enemy – again, often the Amhara – and seek their removal. The OLF/OLA's 2023 political manifesto declares that they fight for the Oromo people's right to self-determination, political freedom, economic sovereignty, and socio-cultural rights.
I wholeheartedly agree that all Ethiopians, regardless of their ethnicity, deserve freedom, economic opportunity, cultural recognition, human rights, and an equitable share of natural resources. My objection lies solely with the tribal exclusivity inherent in ethno-nationalist ideology.
Now, let's turn to the Abiy Ahmed regime. Even the OLF/OLA acknowledges the accuracy of assessments regarding its nature. The regime stands accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in both Oromia and Amhara.
For instance, in the Amhara region alone, thousands of civilians have allegedly been killed by drone strikes. Shockingly, an estimated 2,700 Amhara women – a staggering 45% of whom were under the age of 18 – have reportedly been raped between July 2023 and May 2025.
Entire Amhara communities have allegedly been subjected to ethnic cleansing. Thousands of Amhara have been displaced, even within Addis Ababa itself. Thousands more Amhara political prisoners are said to be suffering in Abiy's prisons.
There are even claims that state-led destruction of economic, social, and physical infrastructure is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars. Ethiopia now hosts one of the largest populations of internally displaced persons in the world, and the majority are said to be Amhara. Amhara individuals residing outside the Amhara region are allegedly targeted for ethnic cleansing. Drone bombardments of Amhara civilians are purportedly ongoing.
The OLF/OLA reports similar atrocities against Oromos, stating that under the guise of 'law enforcement,' the regime has committed extermination, extrajudicial killings, rape, and bombings of unarmed civilians.
Regardless of the specific details, the level of brutality attributed to the Abiy regime in both regions is unprecedented. The two largest regions of Ethiopia, Amhara and Oromia, are painted as horrifying landscapes of mass killings, torture, decapitation, rape, and the burning of homes and villages. In the Amhara region specifically, there have been reports of young girls being mutilated in unspeakable ways.
Currently, Ethiopia has an estimated 4.5 million internally displaced persons, the highest number in Africa. Thousands of political prisoners – both Amhara and Oromo – are reportedly languishing in prisons and makeshift camps.
Abiy's political model is characterized by a zero-sum approach, where the Prosperity Party, effectively the rebranded OPDO (an ethnic party masquerading as a national movement), embodies the principle that one group's gain must come at another group's loss. This guarantees conflict, economic devastation, and perpetual instability. Ethiopians have endured decades of zero-sum ethnic rule.
Under the TPLF, immense wealth was concentrated in the hands of a small elite, while poverty persisted within Tigray. Under Abiy, the same pattern continues, but now it benefits a different elite faction.
Public outrage is reaching a boiling point. Student protests, teacher strikes, transport disruptions, small business resistance, and diaspora mobilization all signal a nationwide revolt. A coordinated, disciplined, country-wide uprising could potentially topple the regime.
But the most important question remains: Will Ethiopia achieve genuine systemic transformation – or simply experience a change of rulers?
What do you think? Is a post-ethnic governance structure even possible in Ethiopia, given the deep-seated historical grievances? Can the cycle of violence be broken, or is the country destined to repeat the mistakes of the past? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
