HR/FB Surgers & Decliners Using League-Relative Statcast Power Metrics
Last week, I unveiled new research (https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-league-relative-statcast-power-metrics-forecast-next-years-rates/) that concludes looking at league-relative Statcast power metrics, such as HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% could help forecast the direction of both Barrel% and HR/FB rate the following season. The data was bucketed into two groups, A being those with high relative HardHit% and maxEV marks, but low Barrel%, while B included those with low relative HardHit% and maxEV marks, but high Barrel%. Let’s now identify and discuss the names that met each group’s criteria in 2025 as we look forward to 2026.
There were 26 names (16 in Group A and 10 in Group B) that met either group’s criteria, but not all are fantasy relevant and some just barely met the criteria. So we’ll only discuss the fantasy relevant hitters that met the criteria by a meaningful margin. Let’s begin with Group A — the potential surgers.
Potential HR/FB Surgers
Name HardHit% maxEV Barrel% HR/FB
Bo Bichette (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bo-bichette/19612/stats/batting) 48.8% 112.3 7.9% 11.8%
Brandon Nimmo (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brandon-nimmo/12927/stats/batting) 50.2% 112.3 8.8% 15.0%
Carlos Correa (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/carlos-correa/14162/stats/batting) 45.9% 112.6 6.8% 10.6%
Francisco Lindor (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/francisco-lindor/12916/stats/batting) 44.4% 112.9 8.8% 15.0%
Gunnar Henderson (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gunnar-henderson/26289/stats/batting) 49.0% 113.9 8.5% 12.3%
Heliot Ramos (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/heliot-ramos/22515/stats/batting) 47.4% 116.0 8.8% 11.9%
Jasson Domínguez (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jasson-dominguez/28080/stats/batting) 49.6% 112.1 7.0% 9.7%
Luis García Jr. (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/luis-garcia-jr/20391/stats/batting) 45.8% 111.7 9.0% 10.8%
Trea Turner (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trea-turner/16252/stats/batting) 42.1% 111.7 5.8% 9.4%
Trevor Larnach (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-larnach/21501/stats/batting) 45.6% 113.3 7.2% 12.0%
William Contreras (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/william-contreras/20503/stats/batting) 48.5% 114.1 6.4% 12.4%
Yandy Díaz (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yandy-diaz/16578/stats/batting) 52.4% 113.6 8.3% 18.2%
