Guinea's Junta Leader Expected to Win First Election Since 2021 Coup: A Complex Political Landscape
The West African nation of Guinea is set to hold its first presidential election since the military coup in 2021, with analysts predicting a likely victory for junta leader General Mamadi Doumbouya. This election comes amidst a backdrop of political uncertainty and a weakened opposition, raising questions about the legitimacy of the democratic process.
Since seizing power, General Doumbouya has faced criticism for clamping down on dissent and the main opposition, leaving him with little competition for a seven-year term. Despite Guinea's rich mineral resources, including being the world's largest exporter of bauxite, poverty and food insecurity remain prevalent, affecting over half of the country's 15 million people.
The election, scheduled for Sunday, will see approximately 6.7 million registered voters cast their ballots at 24,000 polling stations nationwide. Results are expected within 48 hours, with a runoff potential if no candidate secures a majority. The West African regional bloc ECOWAS has deployed an election observation mission to monitor the process.
Nine candidates are vying for the presidency, with Yero Baldé, a little-known figure from the Democratic Front of Guinea party, being Doumbouya's closest challenger. Baldé, who served as Education Minister under former President Alpha Condé, promises governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and economic growth. However, two opposition candidates, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds, and long-time opposition leaders Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Toure have been forced into exile.
The election is held under a new constitution that allows military leaders to run for office and extends the presidential term from five to seven years. This constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a September referendum, which opposition parties called for voters to boycott. Critics argue that the election lacks the necessary conditions for a true return to electoral democracy, as civic space is heavily restricted, and the main opposition leaders are absent.
In Conakry, the capital city, there are mixed feelings about the election's fairness. Some, like restaurant owner Mamadou Bhoye Diallo, refuse to participate, calling it a 'farce' where the candidate is also the referee. Others, like high school student Mamadama Touré, who wears a T-shirt featuring Doumbouya's image, praise him as a champion of youth, highlighting his efforts in connecting Guinean youth to information and communication technologies through digital skills training programs.
The junta's infrastructure projects, including the Simandou mega-mining project, a Chinese-owned venture at the world's largest iron ore deposit, have also been a significant part of Doumbouya's campaign. The military government promotes Simandou as a cornerstone of economic transformation, aiming to create jobs and diversify the economy through investments in various sectors.
However, critics and rights groups highlight the suppression of civil society leaders, the abduction of critics, and the censorship of the press since the coup. Last year, authorities dissolved over 50 political parties, sparking widespread criticism. Despite these concerns, Doumbouya enjoys goodwill among many Guineans, who are persuaded by his promises of a prosperous nation.
As the election unfolds, the political landscape in Guinea remains complex, with questions about the legitimacy of the democratic process and the impact of the junta's rule on the country's future.
