Here’s a bold prediction: the USD/JPY pair is unlikely to break decisively above the 154.50 mark, despite its recent upward momentum. But here’s where it gets controversial—while the U.S. Dollar (USD) has shown resilience, analysts from UOB Group, including Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia, argue that a clear breakthrough above this level remains improbable. So, what’s really going on here? Let’s break it down.
In the short term, the USD’s upward trend appears slightly firm, and it could indeed test the 154.50 resistance level. However, sustaining a move above this point is another story entirely. And this is the part most people miss—while a sharp increase in momentum could theoretically push the USD toward 154.90 over the longer term, such a scenario hinges on several factors, including broader market sentiment and economic indicators. For now, the path of least resistance seems capped.
Looking at the 24-hour view, the USD hit a high of 154.44 last Thursday, and by Friday, it was trading around 153.90. At that time, UOB analysts noted that while the sharp rise seemed excessive, the USD might still test 154.50 before a pullback. They emphasized that to maintain momentum, the USD needed to stay above 153.30, with minor support at 153.60. Interestingly, the currency pair traded within a narrow range of 153.63 to 154.41, closing virtually unchanged at 154.00 (-0.08%). Today, support levels are expected at 153.90 and 153.65, reinforcing the idea that a decisive break above 154.50 is unlikely—at least for now.
Shifting to the 1-3 weeks outlook, UOB analysts reiterated their stance from last Friday (October 31, spot at 153.90) that a sharp increase in momentum could propel the USD toward 154.90. However, they’ve also clarified that this view holds only as long as the 153.00 level—previously identified as strong support at 152.50—remains intact. Here’s the thought-provoking question: If the USD fails to break above 154.50 in the near term, does this signal a broader weakness in the currency, or is it simply a pause before the next leg up? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
In summary, while the USD/JPY pair shows some upward potential, a clear break above 154.50 appears unlikely in the current market conditions. Whether this is a temporary hurdle or a more significant barrier remains to be seen. What’s your take? Do you agree with UOB’s analysis, or do you see a different path unfolding for the USD/JPY pair? Let’s spark a discussion!
